THE HISTORIC CORONAVIRUS CRISIS

This is the most significant crisis that this consultancy has seen in our last three decades. The surge in illness, the outbreaks legal and business ramifications are critical and undeterminable. Government and industries are desperately trying to understand the challenge, support victims and their families, and find a solution.

The problem is, the more the world enters lock-down and isolation, the harder it is to effectively confirm risk and the human and technical resources available. Most of the renowned immunologists are cautiously optimistic. Putting a time on this, however, is virtually impossible. Most businesses are investing in virtual technology, improved infrastructure and future stability of the workforce. Our virtual crisis scenario testing and training is working well as we continue face-to-face contact with crisis and incident response teams.

Prepared executive management is communicating constantly through video-conferences and regular bulletins. In fact, some businesses have set up broadcast studios in home and office to ensure that all employees are communicated with to understand the new and changing operating models. 

Harvard epidemiologist, Professor Mark Lipsitch, made the concerning point on the outbreak as it continues to spread, when he said, “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable”.  We are in the middle of the containment process and there are good and bad examples of this around the world. 

I see Singapore as a shining example of proactive and immediate response. Like many Australian businesses, Singapore had a plan before the virus came.  Most of Asia had plans because of their past experience with SARS and other epidemics.  In Singapore, the ABC reported that testing regimes were up and running by the time the first case was confirmed on January 23^rd. “Labs were in place for our first case”, said Dale Fisher, an Australian infectious disease expert working with the Singapore Government on its strategy.  “And soon after our first case, every lab in every public hospital, was capable of doing tests,” Professor Fisher said.  “So, we ramped up very quickly.”  Within days of the first case, temperature checks were happening at Changi Airport for incoming passengers.  This is in contrast to Australia where passengers arriving recently at Sydney Airport were complaining there were still no mandatory temperature checks for incoming passengers.

A key lesson can be learnt from this crisis so far - the internationalisation of the corona-virus. What was completely unusual about this event was the fact that even though the disease had been discovered, the escalation was confusingly slow at first. Media and public opinion did not focus on the possibility of the battle to control COVID-19.  At the beginning of its spread, some containment measures were discussed in the background but the thought of widely banning travel, closing down cities and hoarding resources, was not even a consideration.

The global authorities, the World Health Organisation and the United States Centres for Disease Control, were somewhat confusing through the escalation phases. Their process lacked the recognition of the rising international threat. There was also confusion over the causes of the crisis in China. 

  

Another lesson was the question of leadership communication in every country.  National leaders had different approaches to the problem. Their press conferences lacked continuity of universal information. Public confidence was severely undermined. This has been particularly relevant in the US.  To quote President Trump in late March: “We’re opening up this incredible country. Because we have to do that. I would love to have it open by Easter.  I would love to have that. It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’d love to make it an important day for this. I would love to have the country opened up, and rarin’ to go by Easter.” Very little consideration of the worst-case scenario. The response from Dr. Tina Tan of the Infectious Diseases Society of America was - "This is the making of a major public health disaster. I am not sure where he is getting his information from but it is extremely flawed."

Leadership hubris has a problem of underestimation – the tendency to plan for the easiest public option – the most logical way out. A common statement of underestimation during the Second World War was “we’ll all be home for Christmas”. 

The central crisis management responses needed in this continually unfolding crisis are:

• Determining your organisation’s preparedness.
• Constantly work-shopping a broader set of disruptive scenarios.
• Reviewing the human and technical resources needed to respond.
• Become the central point of leadership communication.
• Assessing the needs of your stakeholders: people, customers, suppliers and others.
• Ensuring the continuity of critical processes.
• Continually assess investment strategies.
• Date & privacy considerations 
• Reviewing control of supply chains.
• Preparing ahead for recovery and growth.

In terms of crisis management for small or large businesses, it will be a case of riding out the months, and maybe years, of managing the huge number of new risks. As Dr. Edward de Bono, international author international lateral thinker, said “the key responsibility as a Risk Manager and Team Leader is the ability to generate viable risk-adverse alternatives and ways of doing business that minimise your company’s operational risk.” 

Crisis management during the COVID-19 outbreak needs a refreshed playbook because this virus is a historic challenge to contain and recover. 

Do you think you could have been more prepared? 

Hudson River Crisis Control

Captain Sully Sullenberger, piloting his Airbus 320, avoided a crisis by landing his aircraft on New York City’s Hudson River after a massive flock of geese crippled the plane.  Both engines lost power but the former fighter pilot landed the plane successfully, saving 150 lives. 

When air traffic control directed the pilot to land his crippled plane at a nearby airport, the Captain told them “we’re unable to reach the runway and we’re gonna be in the Hudson”.   With his co-pilot, the seasoned pilot ran through the checklist to land the plane on the surface of the river.  He knew what to do from both his experience and his checklist.  He had the technique to ensure the correct combination of responses to the circumstances and conditions of his potential crisis.  He took control.

Every organisation, every business, needs to take control with the immediacy of a crisis plan that works. There is no time to pull out a threat severity matrix and debate what level crisis this could be. 

Crises generally strike without warning. A rapid response may well save lives and assets and ensure minimal operational interruption.  It is the crisis checklist in the plan that makes the difference between logical, well thought-out actions and reflexive reaction.

The crisis checklist should be developed from an experienced and validated process. It should be documented and ready to use for these reasons:

·       To rapidly deliver an orderly and efficient transition from normal to emergency conditions.

·       To provide consistency in action and clear guidelines appropriate for complex and unpredictable occurrences.

·       To prevent actions inconsistent with corporate philosophy, reputation and governance.

Crisis threat checklists formally establish the threshold at which a critical event is triggered. They should determine clear responses – i.e. what to do and when to do it.  This allows for the calm deliberation of individuals and teams to perform effectively in a crisis.

Team Leaders and teams that know what to do, who is going to do it and in what sequence, will be so much more effective during a crisis. A single-minded sense of purpose and an absence of role conflicts, signal an organisation that will win its crisis response. 

With social media changing the rules through the tyranny of distance and time, the keys to successful crisis management are speed, accuracy, thoroughness and credibility. Captain Sullenberger is a great crisis manager and a devotee of aviation safety. His book “Highest Duty:  My Search for What Really Matters” is worth reading. 

CRISIS IN OR OUT OF CONTROL

How often have we heard the expression “this is completely out of control”?

A crisis of any magnitude can hit an organisation where it hurts without a moment’s notice and it doesn’t take long to lose control.  The only protection is a well-rehearsed crisis management plan.

In a matter of minutes, a serious incident or emergency can run out of control and seriously disrupt a business with catastrophic effect.  In some cases, it takes years to recover.

The right response actions can minimise serious damage and can quickly put an organisation in control of its destiny.  Management needs to consider the organisation strategically and ask what is the worst thing that could possibly happen.  Fire, financial problems, lawsuits, cyber crisis, product defect, sexual harassment, act of violence, terrorism, security breach, technology collapse, executive misconduct or environmental issues to name a few.  With the most likely threats in mind, management can prepare strategies to avoid or manage a potential problem and control the agenda.

Reading between the lines in today’s media reports of crises, it is easy to see which organisations have anticipated the problem and have a planning process in place to deal with it.  If an organisation is ready, then there will be a clear message about what is being done and who is doing it.  

It is not just large organisations that need to have comprehensive and integrated crisis management plans.  All organisations need to anticipate crises.  It is so important that small and medium-sized organisations look at their worst case scenarios - the service industry, government, educational institutions, professional firms and research organisations.  They often face the greatest damage from a negative event because they may lack the financial and managerial support required to respond and recover efficiently.

Ownership of crisis management planning must come from the top because most crises end up at the top.  The top global executives recognise that crisis management is a corporate governance strategy and endorse its implementation.  They know that a crisis out of control is liable to lead to loss of profits, lawsuits, loss of market share,  serious loss of reputation and, in many cases, loss of senior jobs.  After writing numerous plans for organisations, I am totally convinced that unless complete support of the Chief Executive and top management is assured, the crisis management program will flounder and never reach its currency.  The day the Chief Executive or Managing Director endorses the organisation’s intentions to install a crisis management program is the day it really happens.

2018 – Are you ready to manage your crisis?

In a matter of minutes, a serious incident or emergency can run out of control and seriously disrupt a business or organisation with catastrophic effect.  In some cases, it takes years to recover.

The right response actions can minimise serious damage and can quickly put an organisation in control of its destiny.  Management needs to consider the organisation strategically and ask what is the worst thing that could possibly happen.  Fire, financial problems, lawsuits, product defect, sexual harassment, act of violence, terrorism, security breach, technology collapse, executive misconduct or environmental issues to name a few.  With the most likely threats in mind, management can prepare strategies to avoid or manage a potential problem and control the agenda.

Reading between the lines in today’s media and social media reports of crises, it is easy to see which organisations have anticipated the problem and have a planning process in place to deal with it.  If an organisation is ready, then there will be a clear message about what is being done and who is doing it.  

It is not just large organisations that need to have comprehensive and integrated crisis management plans.  All organisations need to anticipate crises.  It is so important that small and medium-sized organisations look at their worst-case scenarios.  The service industry, local government, educational institutions, professional firms and research organisations. 

The simple questions I would ask any organisation related to crisis management are:

• what is the worst-case scenario that could hit your organisation?
• what is the most inconvenient time for this to happen?
• do you have a plan to deal with it?
• who will lead your response?
• can you contact your key stakeholders rapidly?
• where will you manage the response from?
• have you identified ways to continuing to run your business?
• what are your short-term and long-term recovery goals?      

The keys to successful crisis management are fast, strategic response from top management, accuracy of information, putting people first and protecting brand and reputation. Credibility in crisis means being ready to handle the worst-case scenario.

Volcano Crisis

The potential eruption of a volcano in a popular tourist area is a crisis that require decisions of great consequence to be made on the basis of rapidly changing information, often under extreme time pressure and frequently under the intense scrutiny of the travelling public and social and news media.

This escalating threat is facing the island of Bali in Indonesia at the present time. Mount Agung has been in the initial stages of eruption since early September. Over 100,000 people have been evacuated. Mount Agung last erupted in 1963, killing 1,000 people. Millions of people travel to this idyllic tourist destination each year.

Bali emergency authorities and the Indonesian Government have worked to reduce the risk of the eruption on residents and tourists through effective emergency and security response. Clearly they have developed policies and procedures necessary to resolve the problems related to an imminent disaster.

I was on the island a few weeks ago and was impressed by the knowledge locals had about plans and preparations for evacuation response. I was highly impressed with the polite and well-prepared updates on dampening down the fear and concern visitors to the island may experience.

This is one of the communications delivered to my hotel room not long after my arrival:

“Dear Guests,

Bali is still safe for tourism.

The volcano has not erupted and there is no volcanic ash.

Mount Agung is 72 km. from Seminyak and 32 km. from Ubud. Flights in and out of Bali’s international airport remain normal.

Even if the volcano erupted, it would not affect aviation unless there is volcanic ash.

Nine alternative airports have been prepared for diverted flights. 300 buses will be available to transport travellers to ferry ports.

Bali tourism is safe.  Do not trust misleading news.”

This crisis could arrive at any time:  and it could come at any speed.  It can strike without warning and destroy people and property. It is through planning that an island like Bali can anticipate and reduce the impact of that crisis and hopefully preserve its tourism identity and brand as being a safe place to be or to come back to. Bali is prepared.

“BY FAILING TO PREPARE YOU ARE PREPARING TO FAIL" – Benjamin Franklin.                                                                    

CEO Action Checklist

During the Second World War, Britain's Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, took constant naps at the peak of his performance in the War Room, deep beneath London. Leadership in a crisis can only be achieved if a leader is prepared to keep a flexible and rested mind. 

Having a single-minded sense of purpose from a leader signals an organisation that is ready to deal with the worst. So what does the CEO need to consider in the face of a major crisis?

·     The primary role is to provide corporate oversight and direction on resolving the problem and to minimise the impact on the corporate reputation, the community, employees, assets and share value. 

·     Immediately, it is important to confirm the real situation.  Getting accurate facts is sometimes difficult when the pressure is all around, however analysing the facts and identifying objectives has to be a key corporate consideration in the early stages.

·     Two streams of action are needed - one to manage the crisis response and one to manage the daily business.  Life goes on, and although a crisis can stop an organisation in its tracks, business resumption is essential and part of the immediate recovery process.

·     Take into consideration at all times the corporate position. Confirm the message strategy and make sure that one spokesperson is giving a clear, consistent message right across all stakeholder audiences. The CEO should take the role of spokesperson if the situation is critical.

·     Research how the crisis is affecting the company’s audiences.  Qualitative research can be very important here.  Engaging research to monitor attitudes to the response can be invaluable on the road to recovery.

·     Be prepared to lose business and market share initially to gain maximum results in your response.  (Johnson & Johnson withdrew the Tylenol product in the US after the extortion poisoning, initially losing market share.  They repackaged in tamper-proof packs under government supervision and quickly regained brand reputation and market share.)

·     Take the initiative.  Be prepared to tell it as it is.  Show the stakeholders what you are doing and why you are doing it.  Emphasise and speak in language the community understands.  Clarify information rather than promise results.

·     Don’t let lawyers slow down the crisis agenda.  Take good legal advice but avoid being gagged on disclosure.

·     Importantly, don’t lose control of yourself or your temper.  Overreaction can cause confusion in the response process and a lack of confidence in the direction.  There will be dramatic changes in information and they have to be dealt with responsibly.

·     Keep a close eye on your competitors.  They will use your crisis time as an opportunity.

·     Get on top of your financial audience before they are lead by business analysts, academics and financial journalists.  Help the financial analysts, the banks and your insurers understand that you are on top of the issues and controlling market vulnerabilities.

·     Enlist industry and government support.  Make sure your industry and the government understand the seriousness of your problem and do all they can to support your recovery.

  

·     Most of all, think ahead.  Use lateral thinking to both interpret unintended consequences and how the business may finish up.  Direct your recovery team to start building bridges and repairing reputation now.

As Winston Churchill said - "we know it will be hard; we expect it to be long, we cannot predict or

measure its episodes or its tribulations".

Managing Bad News to Employees in Crisis

Employees and families must be told of a crisis first and fast.  Responsible crisis planning requires management to report on the importance of a critical situation to every level of the organisation quickly and efficiently.  

Rumour and innuendo need to be controlled with the same efficiency that an emergency crew uses to deal with a fire.  And it means a level of communication that many managers may not have applied before.  Sensitivity and strength of message will produce positive results.

In a world of social media, “tell ‘em nothing” or “we’ll let them know later” is a certain recipe for disaster.  Addressing employee issues first will enlist an army of support.  In the case of a company that is going through a major accident with fatalities in the workplace, the first people the media will seek out for information are employees.  If employees have a clear idea of what has happened, then facts lead the story instead of scandal and hearsay.

Employees form their own opinions quickly.  Will the crisis destroy the organisation and will they have a job?  Is the company responsible?  Having a plan of action in place to address employees’ concerns enables a company to move the message to its other stakeholders with the confidence that the whole organisation understands the situation.  It also assists in the recovery and business resumption process because employees are more willing to return to a normal work environment.  Also, if people are better informed, they are considerably more willing to assist in getting the company back on track again.

This is a highly sensitive communication area, and should be handled by company executives where company personnel are involved. 

Certainly there are trained counsellors who understand exactly how to approach the sensitive problem of communicating bad news.  This tragic and sensitive job is often handed to a young police officer who is usually ill-experienced and ill-prepared to present the bad news to a family. 

Neither is the police officer prepared to cope with what might follow in terms of a serious emotional response, physical collapse or at worst, an asthma or heart attack.

A lesson from a woman in a distant mining town who tells the story about a policeman waking her from a deep sleep in the early hours of the morning. 

Upon opening the door and recognising the local officer, he presented the news to the half-awake recipient: “Sorry to tell you that your daughter’s been killed in a road smash near the town and I’ve got to get back there fast”.  

The policeman had his job to do and couldn’t be in two places at once so he left the highly distressed and shocked woman to deal with this tragedy on her own, alone. 

She waited for the morning to come, and after pulling herself together, walked through the local supermarket looking for some contact with the people of the town. 

The few people in the supermarket avoided her with deliberation.  They had heard about the story but did not have the ability or the strength of mind to face this woman.  It wasn’t until later that day that real help arrived on her doorstep - some of the wives of the mining community got together and gave her the support that should have come hours before. 

 

It is law in most countries that the police are required to notify families regarding a fatality first. But this should not be left only to emergency services personnel, or, even worse, by way of news broadcasts, to deliver the bad news.  Companies need to send their own management team to employees' homes or the hospital to support police and emergency services regarding an accident in the workplace. Management training on counselling techniques should be undertaken.  Qualified counsellors should assist in the training process.  The following are suggested guidelines:

·                 Develop the message so that it is delivered sensitively.

·                 Two people should attend when delivering bad news.

·                 Deliver the message as quickly and concisely as possible.

·                 If possible do not allow the receiver of bad news to go to the scene of the incident.

·                 Arrange as soon as possible, monetary, welfare and counselling assistance. 

·                 Stay in contact with victims after the incident.

Remember employees and victims’ families must be told about crises first and fast. The first question media will ask is – “have you informed your employees’ families”? What will be your answer?